Why? Because it’s The Masters! It will be one of the best ones ever if the weather doesn’t drown it out. With the LIV guys back in play, I can’t wait for the drama.
With that said, we knocked out the Tiers for the biggest of them all. We knock it down to 12, you go from there.
TIER ONE
Safe Bet: Scottie Scheffler
It has to be. What else can be said? The World #1 and defending champ who has already won 2 big events this year. Easiest choice in all of the Tiers.
Risk/Reward: Jon Rahm
This is the part that sucks. I hate having to pick as risk/reward in Tier 1. It is essentially a fade play, and with Rory needing the win for the career Grand Slam and Rahm flying a little under the radar, I think Rahm could return to form.
In his last 5 tournaments at Augusta, he has only finished outside of the top 10 once, and that was last year at 27th.
TIER TWO
Safe Bet: Justin Thomas
It is weird that in my head, JT is having a bad year by his standards. While he only has 3 Top 10’s, him and Max Homa in this Tier are the only 2 to have 0 missed cuts this year.
His stats don’t jump off the page, but he has been as consistent as anyone in this field outside of the guy I am throwing in the risk/reward bin.
Risk/Reward: Cam Smith
Yeah. My first LIV choice. Smith hasn’t been playing like his former self and really hasn’t played that much at all, but the guy has 4 top 10’s in the last 5 Masters. His worst was a 51st in 2019. The risk is obviously, how will the LIV guys adjust along with he hasn’t been playing his usual golf, but Cam is a gamer and I think he may surprise some people this weekend.
Bench: Max Homa
I love Homa. He has been pretty awesome this year with no missed cuts along with the best SG: Short Game numbers in the Tier, but course history matters a lot at Augusta. Max finished 48th last year and was cut in the 2 Masters Champs before last. It is enough for me to stay away from one of the best players so far this year.
TIER THREE
This tier is brutal. I like everyone in this one to do well so this is not a fun one.
Safe Bet: Tony Finau
Tony Finau just makes cuts. Even if his game hasn’t been as sharp, he is still one of the most consistent in the entire field and has not missed the cut in the last 5 Masters. He is basically at the top of both SG: Approach and SG: Off the Tee (barely behind Morikawa in both). Combine that with his consistency, I think he can contend this year.
Risk/Reward: Dustin Johnson
It’s D.J. How can I not pick D.J. to contend at the Masters no matter what Tour he is on. With as wet as it will be this weekend, his length off the tee and past success is too juicy to pass up. Plus, him and Cam Smith have the mentality to deal with the LIV distraction this weekend.
Bench: Jason Day (This one kills me)
It’s impossible to not roof for Jason Day. His press conference Monday at Augusta was great. He is one of the best stories of the year. However, this Tier is a murder’s row of guys that can win it. I think Jason can contend for sure, but I like the rest of the guys chances of winning it more than I do Jason.
TIER FOUR
Safe Bet: Hideki Matsuyama
Before The Players i wouldn’t have been as high on Hideki, but the guy crushes The Masters. Four of his last 5 Masters were top 20 finishes and the one outlier being in 2019 when he finished 32nd.
His game has been rounding into shape and he is still one of the best in SG: Short Game in the Tier.
Risk/Reward: Sungjae Im
I bounced back and forth between Sungjae and Tyrrell Hatton in this spot. While Hatton has the edge on his finishes this season, Sungjae isn’t far behind. He has a 2nd place finish in the “2020” Masters and was 8th last year. Sure, he was cut in between but he could very well win it.
Bench: Sam Burns
I don’t get why Burns is in this Tier which makes me worried that I am missing something. He missed the cut at both the Arnold Palmer and the Waste Management. Sure, he won the WGC Match Play, but he missed the cut last year in his only Masters appearance and is too volatile.
TIER FIVE
Safe Bet: Tommy Fleetwood
Fairway Jesus isn’t quite the highly-regarded player he was a few years ago when everyone thought it was only a matter of time in which he would have a major, but he has been consistent as anyone at Augusta.
He has the best short game in the Tier and has made the most percentage of cuts. He also hasn’t missed a cut in the last 5 at Augusta. The idea of safe.
Risk/Reward: Corey Conners
The last guy in gets picked here? Absolutely. Did you know in the last 3 Masters, Conners hasn’t finished worse than 10th? His last three are 6th, 8th, and 10th. He has said he feels comfortable here and who am I to doubt him?
Bench: Joaquin Niemann
Niemann hasn’t done much in the LIV tournaments this year and hasn’t been great at Augusta either. I am hesistant on the LIV guys outside of a few and definitely not expecting a lot from Niemann.
TIER SIX
As much as I like everyone in Tier 3, I equally dislike everyone in Tier 6. Yes, even El Tigre.
Safe Bet: Keith Mitchell
I guess? I don’t have a safe pick in this Tier. Mitchell has been the most consistent out of the rest here, but he has only played in The Masters once and was 43rd in 2020. He is by far the leader in Driving the ball in this group so if he can continue with it, he could be a lock to make the cut.
Risk/Reward: Tiger Woods
Because we have to right? If anyone in this Tier has a chance to make a splash, it’s Tiger. I don’t think its a great chance by any means, but at least it exists.
Bench: Kurt Kitayama
I don’t love Kitayama’s game and outside of his Palmer Invite win, he has missed cuts around it in the other main tournaments. Add that on with it being his first Master’s and no thanksl
DF Tiers Guru 